Submitted by Trained Economist
The challenges we now face must be put into a context and avoid the Tea Party like angry lashing out and politicizing of issues. The Barbados situation reminds me so much of what Obama faces in the USA.
1. It is easy to forget how dependent the Barbados economy is on tourism and international capital flows (especially for property investments). Given that the global recession was been especially long and severe, and the recovery weakest in the major source markets for our tourists and capital flows, it meant that Barbados would be severely impacted in terms of tourist arrivals, tourist expenditure and international capital flows. Aggregate demand, GDP, employment, government revenues and foreign reserves were bound to be negatively impacted. In 2008, Real GDP grew by 0.2%, it declined about 4.8% in 2009 and grew by around 0.3 % in 2010. Given those numbers and the length and depth of the global recession in our major source markets I am not persuaded by arguments which suggest that domestic policy aggravated the impact.
I would like to take you back to 2001 after the September 11 bombings. Our major source markets went into recession after the September 11 bombings and in 2001 Real GDP in Barbados fell by 3.4% and again by 0.4% in 2002. Very few would have argue that the post 911 recession was of the scale of the current recession, and the recovery was far more robust and sustained, but look at the impact it had on Barbados. The reason it had that impact was not because of a failure of local policy then, it was because of the openness of the economy and the reliance on tourism and international capital flows. The then government launched a major counter cyclical program but we still had two years of declining GDP. In the face of a recession of the scale encountered by our source markets and the slow recovery, a domestic growth solution is not a very practical one for Barbados given the structure of our economy.



















