Chief Marketing Officer Stephen Worme, Barbadians Want To Examine The Analysis On Solar Energy

Stephen Worme, Chief Marketing Officer, BL&P

As part of a pilot programme, BL&P has introduced a Renewable Energy Rider “to permit small customer-owned wind and solar photovoltaic systems to connect to the grid” to generate electricity for their own use and sell surplus back to BL&P. Provision was made for up to 200 connections but the last public report I saw suggested that less than 10 consumers had signed up.
Andrew Brathwaite

Chief Marketing Officer Stephen Worme of the Barbados Light and Power Ltd (BL&P) is quoted in the press suggesting that “international oil prices are predicted to rise and it would be unrealistic to expect the Barbados Light & Power Company not to pass on the increase to electricity users or to expect Government to subsidize it for “any extended period of time”  BU’s best research contradicts Worme’s forecast however we  concede that there is a known volatility associated with oil prices.

A couple years ago when the price of oil skyrocketed to USD140.00 plus per barrel it sparked a robust national conversation about the mitigating steps which should be taken.Two years later we are still talking with no semblance of a Renewable Energy Program to be mobilized any time soon.

Whenever Chief Marketing Officer Worme as been asked the question about using solar energy to complement fossil power generation at BL&P, he has resorted to the excuse of non-viability. By BL&P’s logic the price of oil has to reach a higher price point to ensure an acceptable rate of return on the  investment. At no time has BL&P proffered any analysis to the public to support its argument. Why should they anyway if the media and stakeholders, who should be curious, have not made the request.

Mr. Worme can you share BL&P’s analysis with the public so that it can inform the national conversation on how we should effectively and efficiently design a Renewable Energy Program?

Have you approached government about making concessions which would reduce the cost of a solar project?

Given the national benefits to be had of implementing such a project  wouldn’t government be a willing partner?

Frankly we are too intelligent a people to be accepting Chief Marketing Officer’s ‘opinion’ that the cost to develop solar energy is prohibitive when compared to fossil fuel as the raw material. What is stopping BL&P and government approaching a reputable solar vendor and negotiating a position which would positively affect cost to the end consumer?

The has come for the bullshit to stop!

101 responses to “Chief Marketing Officer Stephen Worme, Barbadians Want To Examine The Analysis On Solar Energy

  1. @John: “What we really need is someone who owns a whole lot of land, has lots of money, and has some brain!!

    ROFLMFAO…

    I have to say, I’m really enjoying this…

    Let us, just for speculation, say that one creates a Solar Power Tower dependent upon rheostats with reflective Mylar. Cheap. Replaceable.

    The rheostats reflects ~90% of the sunlight each receives for its lifespan. Each does its job well.

    A storm blows through… Boo hoo…

    The next day the array is back on-line.

    There is absolutely no reason this modern day technology cannot be used here in Barbados here and now.

    All it takes is someone with some land, some money, some balls, (and, as John has correctly pointed out) some brains.

  2. … and the tower?!!!

  3. Towers can be designed to withstand hurricane force winds. So too can typical Solar panels. Check the net on Solar panel’s standing up to hurricanes in Florida.

    Granted the economics for installing solar systems that can reduce reliance on the grid substantially by individuals today does not look good. But, could the installation of PV systems on many roofs and in many yards by individual householders be promoted and incentivised as initially a method for partial reduction of dependence on fossil fuels and total provision of BASIC off grid emergency power as the main objective for the persons opting for such a system? Lets say such a system at today’s costs could be 10-15K Barbados. At 15K it might mean that it could be financed by the savings from acquiring and driving a small Suzuki rather than a BMW or even a mid sized Toyota car or by other savings, such as reducing the days of an annual family vacation, as just two examples. The panels are normally guaranteed for 25 years and specialized batteries can last for 10 or more years if properly maintained.

    In the same way that solar water heating panels are installed on most roofs in Barbados, couldnt some updated incentives be put in place to attract those who can afford it or are foward thinking, and willing to take the chance, to put up these relatively small solar PV systems on their roofs?

    The economics might look bad now but I think there is a good future for PV systems in Barbados as research progresses, some of it by the people at UWI who are following in Oliver Headley’s footsteps. I have a small PV system and it works. It puts out consistently more amps than its maximum rating for a few hours each day. It produces some electricity during overcast hours and Peak Hours appear to be around 7 hours generally in Barbados per day as compared with the 5 that are normally used in calculations.

  4. checkit-out

    How many people have the technical know how which you are demonstrating?

    Personally doing something for your home will barely dent the problem.

    Whatever solution or technology is used has to be useable by many houses.

    Some combination of individual installations and large scale applications needs to happen.

    Perhaps the large scale application will come out of the experimenters like yourself eliminating the technologies that won’t work on a larger scale and arriving at a “perfect” solution for all.

    Perhaps it is the wind farm proposed by BL&P or the solar tower by Chris.

    Maybe the Government will go nucular!!

    But you cannot expect large numbers of average householders with no technical background to do the things you are doing.

    Whatever solution that is found has to comprehend the lack of technical experience and justifiable fear of electricity most Bajans have.

    Whatever people may say, BL&P provides an exceptionally good user friendly service to its customers most of whom are comfortable not to know any technical details about their supply because BL&P takes care of those issues.

    A package has to be presented to houseowners in a fashion whereby they derive the same level of comfort they have with BL&P.

    I remember buying a solar water heater in 1981 in the early days of solar. A unit arrived was installed on top of my house and I had hot water. I was comfortable with the product and service so it can be done, but water and electricity are very different utilities.

    If you are not on top of your game with electricity you can kill yourself or somebody else. Water will just wet you up.

    Whatever solutions are found need to be expandable to a scale that is large enough to address the problem.

    So, when you are working with your “baby”, think how it could be made easily available to many persons.

    We will get to a solution but many dead ends need to be explored.

  5. @John

    The problem you have identified is not insurmountable.

    All it means is that a thriving solar energy adoption would create an opportunity for some technical people.

    What you and some others don’t seem to factor is that we have no choice if we want to survive and or protect our way of living.

  6. The framework for all of this already exists jusst go on to BL&P’s website and read all the documents posted under the Renewable Energy Rider (RER). It is, like all things from BL&P, well thought out and addresses all issues including safety.

    What should be done and could be politically very positive is the following:
    – give the middle class a tax break on installing systems that sell back to the grid. not something undefined like they have for environmentally friendly product, but something specific and turnkey. Like a 15k or 20k deduction.
    – push BL&P to partner with a number small indiginous electrical engineering firms – I’m sure they are plenty out there that could bring houses up to code to address the safety concerns and satisfy that aspect of the RER and put some panels on your roof. Provide these guys with some Government support for commercial bank loans – not handouts and don’t lend money directly,, let the oversight of a commercial bank act as a controling mechanism.
    – encourage folks witha campain showing the benefits. Tell them that a 20k installation will only really cost you 13k after the tax deduction and then you’ll earn back $X a month selling back to the grid. Just based on my amateur interest in this topic suggests to me that a $20k system would generate say $250 to $300 a month in revenue at reasonable rates (say @ variable fuel charge plus a small margin – not a big margin as is indicated in the documents currently) – that’ll pay back your investment in about 4 years.

    I would do it in a heartbeat but I’m not an electrical engineer and can’t do it myself. With this sort of framework, institutionalised and blessed by the government, partnered with local companies and the banks, you would create all kinds of economic activity, develop a new local capabilities – really a whole new local industry that entrepreneurs could then take to other islands. Over time, instead of spending hundreds of millions of hard currency to buy fuel to generate electricity you have clean Bajan made power.

    I realise that there are many ccomplexities but

  7. … but the public is now finally aware of the true unsubsidized cost of resources needed to bring power to their homes and the risks that we are exposed to vis a vis volatile fuel prices.

  8. @X and John – thanks for raising the level of the discussion and for explaining so carefully.

  9. @Carson
    I agree with you one hundred percent that BL&P gets substantial profits. A minimum per month collected from 150,000 customers at $40.00 (only minimum) calculates $6,000,000.00. I repeat monthly. So, yes, man they can subsidize at some point. Also, the interim bills allow them to take 100% in addition to real bill when read. My money is tied up in an interim bill whilst they use it on their bank deposits.

    Barbadians can demand govenrment to remove the VAT from electricity and demand the BL&P give some exactly what you (Carson) proposes in this exchange.

    Consumers can indeed place our demands. Let us do it until an alternative provision is made we will all relay on electricity generated and supplied by BL&P.

  10. Again BU echoes the point that the national conversation needs to move to how can we integrate alternate energy solutions into our energy plan. The FAC is a fickle component of the BL&P billing and we can argue until the cows come home rising oil price driven by geopolitics will always come back to torment us. Also the forex savings cannot* be ignored.

    Let us understand we have to jump out of the box as far as our thinking goes. tions into our energy plan. The FAC is a fickle component of the BL&P billing and we can argue until the cows come home rising oil price driven by geopolitics will always come back to torment us. Also the forex savings cannot* be ignored.

    Let us understand we have to jump out of the box as far as our thinking goes.

  11. checkit-out

    X

    I agree with you almost wholeheartedy except that I think the person who would want to put up an off-grid system should not be excluded from the incentives and other developments as long as the system is within agreed specs. Very good post

  12. Sorry,

    the last paragraph:
    ‘Consumers can indeed place our demands. Let us do it until an alternative provision is made we will all relay on electricity generated and supplied by BL&P.’

    should say:-
    “Consumers can indeed place our demands. Let us do it until an alternative provision is made where we won’t rely on electricity generated and supplied by the BL&P.”

    If it is solar panels – Dr. Simmons has proven it works and its value. A local has tried and continues to prove it let us do it.

  13. I’ve looked into the offgrid systems and I just don’t see them being as beneficial. There is a misalignment between generation and usage (peak use in my home is early morning and evening not during the day); and batteries are expensive and don’t last as long in this climate as they might in the US. It’s good for small hobby systems and good for supporting agribusinesses and other commerical activities where usage and generation are aligned (agri-work tends to occur, and businesses are open during daylight hours) but at the residential level I believe based on my calculations that you have to sell back to the grib for the investment to make financial sense.

    But that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be incented for your off-grid system – zero VAT rated solar panels and other incentives might be more suited though. You see the selling back to the grid has broader benefits because a lot of people could become net generators benefiting the system beyond their own home. A standalone system doesn’t have the same benefit.

  14. checkit-out

    I have a small PV system and it works. It puts out consistently more amps than its maximum rating for a few hours each day. It produces some electricity during overcast hours and Peak Hours appear to be around 7 hours generally in Barbados per day as compared with the 5 that are normally used in calculations.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Please correct my assumptions and numbers below as I try to work out what power output is possible from photovoltaic panels on a roof in Barbados and run some figures.

    I will use your figure for peak sunlight.

    A quick search of the net reveals 10 – 12 watts per square foot for a photo voltaic panel

    http://www.solarpanelstore.com/

    7 hours of good sun per day as per checkit-out

    Therefore 70-84 watt hours of output on a square foot of roof on a bright day.

    A 2000 – 3000 square foot roof can thus produce at worst 140kWh per day and at best 252 kWh per day.

    Looking good so far if figures and assumptions right.

    Two days out of a month will produce more than enough for me leaving me to sell 26-29 days of generation to the grid.

    I am assuming the whole roof is covered in the photovoltaic panels.

    Cost is probably high.

    Clearly this is overkill if all I want is to supply myself.

    I can divide the 2000-3000 by say 25 to get a footprint for panels to supply me for a month.

    That comes out to 80-120 square feet.

    Lets say 100 square feet.

    Given the 10 -12 watts per square foot 100 square feet equates to 1-1.2 kwatt system.

    From youtube it appears that in the US the average size is 4kWatts.

    So lets see what the cost of a 4kWatt system is?

    Here is a link for a 5kWatt system at $17,995.00 US.

    http://www.solarpath1.com/yinglim190/yinglim190.htm?gclid=COKT77mOhKoCFYeQ5godi0OC0A

    If I were to purchase and set up such a system I would only use 1-1.2 kWatts in my home so I might have as much as 4kWatts or 80% of the capacity available for sale back to the utility company.

    How many kWh is that?

    Back to 7 hours of good sunlight .. that is 28kWh per day or 28×365/12 = 851kWh per month.

    My word!!!

    Are these figures right?

    If I got 10 cents per kWh that would be $85.10 per month in income on top of “free” electricity.

    If I got 20 cents per kWh I would get $170.20 per month.

    If I got 50 cents I would get $425.50 per month.

    My outlay would be $36,000.00 for this unit.

    At 50 cents per kWh I would get $5100.00 per year … plus “free” electricity.

    At 10 cents per kWh I would get $1200.00 per year … plus “free” electricity.

    At 10 cents per kWh it will take me a long time to get the unit to pay for itself.

    At 50 cents per kWh it starts to look good.

    We need to know what is the rate we will be paid before an outlay of this order?

    There is no doubt it could be attractive for all concerned.

  15. @David
    Oil price will be volatile and in the event China’s economy crashes then oil could drop below $75. However, the massive demand increase projected over the next 5-7yrs versus the potential for net supply increases projects to oil over $200. We all need to consider that the Saudi’s et al have lied about reserves and that major elephant fields have not be discovered in locations that are reasonably costed for extraction eg the fields off Brazil will take 10yrs to exploit with horrific costs that will require very high prices to make economic sense.

  16. @John –

    http://www.blpc.com.bb/bus_energyrider.cfm#D

    MONTHLY RENEWABLE ENERGY CREDIT

    All kWh supplied to the grid @ 1.8 times the Fuel Clause Adjustment or 31.5 cents/kWh, whichever is greater.

    The Fuel Clause Adjustment is calculated according to the Fuel Clause approved by the Fair Trading Commission and may vary from month to month.

  17. checkit-out

    John re. your post of July 15, 2011 at 4:09 PM

    First, some caveats. My system is really a small one. 215 watts only and 12 volts. The peak hour figure of circa 7 was calculated in May this year when there were a significant number of rainy days. I only use it to run a computer system, some security lights and the lights in my computer room, a TV and fans and occasionally, in power outages, some small power tools. In an emergency it could run essential lights, a computer system, a thermoelectic cooler and some small power tools. If I carried up the wattage to say 1/2 kilowatt, it could run a small Energy efficient fridge in addition to the above. The system is entirely off-grid using batteries, which in Barbados are very expensive ranging from 315 $ bds for a marine battery to 550$ for a 6 volt golf cart battery.

    My intervention is from the point of view of a minimalist system that can provide SILENT essential power in an emergency and has no tie in to the Grid but can be used on an everyday basis to reduce the monthly BL&P bill by about 9 to about 15 percent depending on ones usage pattern.

    Of course, from an economic standpoint, Grid tie in is the way to go and as you have pointed out, the economics of such lie almost totally with the money BL&P pays out per Kilowatt hour.

    I think that we need the professionals to weigh in here with data from Barbados studies. I consider my small system as a lab but I think the UWI group. Dr Clarke, the Energy specialist, and some BL&P technicians could give us some better data on various parameters for Barbados. e.g. I think in Barbados, because of its being fairly near the equator, is likely to be a more energy efficient location than the North America or european sites for which average data are normally taken. Thus the figures you gave of 10-12% energy efficiency for panels might well be closer to 12-13% under Barbados’ conditions.

    I think that Government policy should be aimed primarily at increasing the numbers of people usin grid-tied systems but that it is possible, in a hurricane and storm prone area, that eventually there could be enough people guided and incentivsed to put solar systems on their roofs, serviced by knowledgeable providers to make an economic difference for the country.

    The Solar water heating example by Solar Dynamics is a guiding beacon in this regard. Hot water for bathing in Barbados is not really essential but the combination of Government incentives and the entrepreneurial wisdom and actions by James Husbands made it possible for Barbados to become the leader in this hemisphere of the usage of solar heating. Solar PV generation is just a small step in this continuum and I think James Husbands has a further role to play in this along with other RE professionals now in Barbados.

    I don’t fine it too difficult to dream of a Barbados landscape with as many solar PV panels on the roofs as there are solar water heaters. The key is in how it is promoted and supported by Government and the private sector. In addition, it has the potential to provide a significant number of reasonably good jobs for new entrants into this new system.

    I had a quick look at your maths and I don’t find anything to fault.

  18. Brutus

    With a FAC of 47 cents per kWh I would get 1.8 times that for the energy supplied to the grid.

    The 50 cents I did the math for now becomes 84.6 cents and the yearly income $8629.

    That seems unbelievably generous!!!!

    Maybe I made a mistake or do not understand what BL&P is offering.

    If the FAC continues to rise there is a real incentive for a homeowner to put in such a system. If I understood Mr. Worme it sounds like he is saying it will probably continue to do so.

    Let’s say I got this right so far.

    There are additional costs.

    The physical installation of the hardware.

    The electrical hookup.

    Perhaps the strenghtening of the roof or the building of a structure to accommodate the panels. It is no point putting thousands of dollars ontop a shed roof that will blow down the first high wind that passes.

    A plus for houses that have been designed and built with hurricane resistance in mind. They have the potential to become money earners for their owners with minimal upgrade.

    I would imagine if BL&P is going to buy electricity from such an home owner they are going to want to know about the dependability of the “plant” from which they will be buying.

    Here is a link to a 4 kW example which I found interesting.

    The numbers are from 2009, so expect the costs may be lower now.

    http://sonic.net/~jmgrant/solar/solar.php

    This is a package an elecrical contractor could offer homeowners.

    In fact anyone who can marry the electrical discipline and the structural discipline could offer the service.

    BL&P seems to offer a very generous incentive where rates are concerned.

    Maybe I am not understanding them.

    It would be nice to know that if I imported one of these units I would not have to pay 17.5% in VAT plus whatever the import duty is.

    If I had a VAT registered business I could probably claim the VAT back.

    Hey, if I did this on a scale of 10 or more I might be able to incorporate a company which received a yearly income in excess of the $80,000 and so had to be VAT registered.

    Looks like the US state governments offer some form of rebate. Something along those lines would be good from the GOB.

    Maybe this is something that could work ……. and the GOB might not have to go nucular.

    A pity the best economic brain in Barbados could only come up with a Government subsidy and perhaps a $100 million debt for the FAC in 2008 and couldn’t look a little further than his nose.

    This thing has potential.

    Closer attention needs to be paid to the numbers …. and the technology.

  19. GreenTechnologies Inc (828-7518) has a plan that works out to eight years of paying a bank back for the purchase and installation of panels,instead of paying BL&P. Your monthly payments would not change, just the people that you are making those payments to.

  20. checkit-out

    BAFBFP;

    Is this the Green Technologies Inc. you are referring to?
    http://news.caribseek.com/set-up/exec/view.cgi?archive=176&num=85688

    Any more information on the service. Seems like a very high end off-grid system to me. That’s fine although a grid tied one should be more economic but it illustrates my contention that there is room for both types of systems.

    I suspect, if we search that we might find that the expertise exists for a strategic onslaught on reducing reliance on fossil fuels in Barbados in the not too distant future

  21. @checkit-out

    Thank you, that has been the point of the blog all along.

    We need to have an earnest national conversation.

    We need to dismiss the old arguments.

  22. David

    I couldn’t agree with you more. The time is ripe for such a national dialogue and onslaught. We can do it. We can reduce our dependance on fossil fuels. The numbers people have a role; the Government has a role; B,L& P has a role; the several new players with experience in this area have a role; Funding agencies such as IDB and the CDB have a role; Individual householders have a role.

    It is time that Government convenes a serious conference on making renewable energy central to energy independance in Barbados and eventually eliminating fossil fuels, with input from all interest groups and from there develop a national strategy and white paper on how to do it.

  23. John | July 14, 2011 at 9:32 AM |
    Straight Talk

    It might be helpful to this discussion if Mr Worme would provide a graph displaying the 24 hour consumption (generation) of electricity.

    I think there is a strong possibility, not considered above, that the peaks would occur during non-solar production.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You find that out by reading your meter at 8pm and 8a am.

    I got a friends who consume most electricity when they sleep!!

    There must be a simple explanation but for the moment we realise we got to figure it out if they want control of what they spend on electricity.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Looks like they may have figured it out by checking their meter.

    They believe it is some security lights!!!

    They cut their daily consumption by 10 kWh which translates to 300kWh in a month or upwards of $200.00!!

    The FAC may continue increasing and erode the saving but they are now in control of what they consume and control their electricity bill.

  24. And David; BU could champion this. BU could ask contributors to write well researched inputs on various aspects of the background, technical underpinnings, costs, benefits and strategy for achieving energy independance in Barbados. Contributions could be requested from everyone, including politicians of all stripes, with an interest in the subject.

    These “papers” could be fine tuned and presented to Government as a roadmap to how we can get the required results. It may be one way that the DLP Government could be saved from itself.

  25. One thing that the exercise of setting up a PV system teaches one is that an energy audit of usage is most important. In John’s example above it was the security lights that was pulling most of the current at night. In my case it was the Electric Stove that was pulling up to 6 kw that was the main culprit in the day. A small PV system and the discipline involved in its implementation forces one to look very carefully at one’s energy usage and correct it.

  26. Effective midnight, Sunday, July 17, the retail price of gasoline will increase

    from $3.17 to $3.23 per litre. The price of diesel will decrease by three cents from

    $2.79 per litre to $2.76 per litre, while the retail price of kerosene remains the same

    at $1.93 per litre.

  27. Oil climbing on expectations of tighter supply | The Trinidad Guardian

    NEW YORK—There are a few certainties when it comes to predicting oil prices. One of them is that the world will use more oil in coming years. The question, analysts say, is whether major oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Canada, Venezuela and others, will be able to meet the demand.

  28. checkit-out
    Has to be the same. One of the directors is a friend of mine. They are not targeting high end. They will be offering both on and off grid. (Yes batteries are very expensive). The offering will be finalized by October of this year as I understand it. My other friend is Dr Roland Clarke; now he is high end, but he is also preparing an affordable package by October (as a result of feed back from BMEX)

  29. @BAFBFP

    Keep BU informed to these developments!

  30. David

    Your wish as always, is my command ..

  31. What the GOB could do is to ensure that SJPP and Community College offer training in household renewable energy systems.

    Perhaps power a section of the two campuses with household systems so that hands on training to electricians is offered which will upgrade their skills and bring them into line with what BL&P has on offer to consumer generators.

    Maybe ask BL&P to help.

    My gut feel is that BL&P it will be miles ahead of the game!!!

  32. checkit-out

    BAFBPF

    Sounds very good. I know Dr Roland Clarke and indeed he was the Clarke I was referring to in one of my earlier posts. He is a professional in the RE area. Perhaps you could get him to write a fairly detailed piece for BU on what is possible in RE in Barbados, given the current state of the technology, and what the current and/or proposed offerings of the company are.

    In addition, He could well be a resource to BU to answer technical questions ONLY on RE by BU family members.

  33. checkit-out

    BAFBFP re your post of July 15, 2011 at 7:04 PM;

    I didn’t quite understand what you said about the financing in that post. Are you saying that the PV system (that is powerful enough to fuel normal household electrical loads) would be installed and paid for up front through a commercial bank package (facilitated by the company) and payments made by the consumer over eight years. Then is there only the costs for batteries (if off-grid) and inverters thereafter for the forseeable future?

    Sounds like an excellent package to me if that is the case!!

  34. There is still the element of scarce foreign exchange to be considered.

    Lets say the pilot scheme of 200 consumer generators results in 10,000 consumers wanting to become consumer generators. That is about 10% of the total consumers.

    Assume these consumers are willing and able to bring their homes/businesses up to a level where reliability, dependability and consistency in the generation of electricity is not an issue.

    Assume by then Barbados has the technical capacity to keep these distributed systems online.

    Say each wants a 5kW system costing $18,000.00USD like the one in the link I gave before.

    The foreign exchange required will be $180,000,000.00 or $180 million USD.

    That is alot of scarce foreign exchange.

    However, that will add 50,000kWatts or 50 mWatts to the grid for the 7 hours of “peak” sun.

    Does anyone know what it would cost in foreign exchange, for BL&P to provide the “same” capacity in generating plant?

    What is the current BL&P capacity and how much is invested in providing it?

    (The 50mWatts should be derated to reflect that it will be dependent on the sun and even then it will not be an exact comparison of apples to apples. Delivering energy 24/7 is completely different from delivering energy 7/7)

  35. @ John
    Do you understand the concept of entering a new era? a different paradigm?

    Essentially it means the imminent review and often the complete reversal of many things that we take for granted.

    …things like cheap, freely available electricity 24 /7 for every citizen.
    … like the ability to jump into an imported car and be anywhere in Barbados in 30 minutes.
    … like jumping on a plane
    …like supermarkets
    .. like personal security

    The Bush man has been enjoying your speculative postulations that seem to start from the basic premise that these things are to be taken as given.

    You will be surprised how easy it will be to fall back into a state of abject poverty and despair once the fragile technologies upon which we have constructed our societies falls apart.
    Think of Sanford as he soared on his pyramid scheme compared to Sanford today after the bottom fell out…

    Only brilliant, wise and inspired leadership during the boom years before 2007 could have prepared a suitable cushion for the coming crash…… Well we all know how THAT went…

    But continue your optimistic postulations … it is quite entertaining.

  36. OK Bush Tea

    The only thing ahead is doom and gloom.

    However, I like to believe that we can think and act in such a way that we can ride out that doom and gloom and provide the means of taking advantage of any future changes in our fortunes for the better.

    A batsman at the wicket needs luck and determination to survive and ultimately prosper but if he gives up and gives away his hand he might as well not have bothered.

    There is a silver lining in every cloud ……. old time wisdom.

    It trumps your paradigm!!

  37. LOL @ John

    Wait! you and BU David are family now? that would have been David’s exact response to BT’s rant LOL…

    The bushman figured that a more science oriented blogger like you would have been able to face up to the reality of our future based on your objective analysis of the facts as they present themselves, and even more clearly based on the (now medium to long term) trends,,,,

    OK! Bushie was wrong… guess it may be better to tell ourselves that all will be well …. despite all the indicators…

    By the way, Bushie does NOT look forward to all gloom and doom…. on the contrary…..

  38. @Bush Tea

    You are a real trouble tree.

    What is wrong with looking to improve systems/methodologies whilst on the earth.

    Even if it means a more affordable and or improved quality of life for 2-3 years hence would it not have been worth it?

    How do we face our children if we become defeatist BT? How are we to lift them up?

    As the adults we cannot give up hope, for their sakes man!

  39. Cap fit David? , LOL
    There is clearly nothing wrong with “looking to improve systems/methodologies whilst on the earth”,

    …however there is quite a lot wrong with mixed up priorities and there is even more wrong with continuing to do the same thing over and over … and expecting different results.

    Is it not clear to you yet that our systems are all flawed? NOTHING is working David!!
    What ‘improved quality of life’ what??!! do you mean cheap gas again for a few years? affordable food? GET REAL David.

    The Titanic has been struck and is mortally wounded. You want us to fight to keep it afloat for a few extra hours so we can sink a few meters further on?
    We need to look beyond the doomed vessel and try to understand the PURPOSE of the journey….
    Perhaps even though the Titanic is doomed, she has reached her intended destination….. perhaps the journey has come to its intended end. …Instead of wasting time working on the damaged boat should we not be seeking the lifeboat to the home port?

  40. @Bush tea

    Have no problem wearing the hat of the eternal optimist.

    Maybe the process of looking for solutions fits the ‘looking for home port’ position you hold.